Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B

The sex ratio at birth (SRB), or secondary sex ratio, is stable, with more boys born alive, but shifts after major events. Acute stress may reduce SRB through disproportionate male fetal loss, while sexual intercourse patterns around conception are associated with offspring sex. We examined whether Brazil's April 2021 Gamma-wave mortality peak was followed by an SRB decline within the previously reported stress-sensitive 3-5 month window. We analysed >81 million live births (1997-2024) from Brazil's Live Birth Information System (SINASC) using pre-pandemic autoregressive forecasts with 95% prediction intervals (PIs). In July 2021, SRB was 50.951% versus 51.185% expected, below the 95% PI (50.968-51.402%), indicating fewer boys. All five macroregions were below expectation, largest in the North, including Amazonas, where Gamma was first identified. Monte Carlo simulation showed that, under usual SRB patterns, a decline with this timing and consistency across Brazil would occur about once in 200 simulations (probability 0.00467), making July 2021 unusual. In February 2023, SRB was 51.441% versus 51.220% expected, above the 95% PI (51.003-51.438%), indicating more boys, nine months after Brazil ended its COVID-19 emergency, suggesting increased sexual intercourse after pandemic relaxation. In April 2023, SRB was 50.956% versus 51.221% expected, below the 95% PI (51.004-51.439%), indicating fewer boys, four months after Pele's death. A comparable UK decline followed Princess Diana's death 4-5 months later. Gamma was prespecified; later observations are hypothesis-generating. These findings highlight SRB's population-level utility and warrant investigation of stress-related and behavioural pathways; ecological design precludes causality.

Artificial intelligence (AI) assistants can improve individual performance but may weaken unaided performance and limit interest diversity, raising questions about their long-term effects on collective intelligence (CI). Here, we consider an evolutionary model in which individuals predict, consult AI, and imitate better-performing peers. Classic reward structures that promote CI without AI can fail under Chatbot AI, whose predictions depend on users' interests, by reducing interest diversity or propagating bias. Directly rewarding or penalizing AI use does not reliably mitigate these effects. Instead, a balanced incentive that preserves minority expertise and rewards collective contributions can promote CI, but an additional incentive is needed to restore unaided collective accuracy. Our framework offers an explanation for emerging evidence of AI's societal impact and clarifies its long-term implications.

Consensus is rarely a one-off achievement. In a changing world, groups must repeatedly update judgments they have already agreed upon, making consensus updating a common feature of real-world collective decisions. However, previous research on collective decision-making has focused mainly on how groups reach a single consensus, leaving the updating of established consensus largely unexamined. This raises two unanswered questions: does consensus updating involve biases analogous to sunk cost, and are such biases related to the cost of the previous consensus? Building a Fake Consensus paradigm, we manipulated consensus-formation cost and examined how dyads updated a subjectively established consensus after new information arrived. An independent individual experiment provided information-matched updating baselines, allowing us to determine whether dyads updated less or more than individuals responding to the same evidence. Contrary to sunk-cost predictions, low-cost consensus led dyads to update less than the individual baseline, whereas medium- and high-cost consensus led them to update more. The pathway through perceived consensus sharedness was significant, and the association between sharedness and updating was stronger at higher left temporoparietal junction inter-brain synchrony. These findings indicate that the history of consensus formation shapes subsequent updating by altering the psychological meaning of shared endorsement, while interpersonal alignment determines how this shared experience translates into coordinated behavior. To our knowledge, this is the first experimentally controlled study of consensus updating in teams to isolate formation history from actual disagreement, providing a new paradigm for studying how collective judgments change after agreement.

Multi-agent prompting of large language models has produced contradictory diagnostic results, and it remains unclear whether any benefit comes from specialist personas or from perspective independence. We compared a single direct call, five personas in one context, and the same five roles as isolated agents integrated by a moderator, with five repeat runs per case, on 87 CPC cases, 406 MedCaseReasoning cases, and 364 emergency department encounters, under an LLM judge validated against clinicians. On the external benchmark the team beat the single call on both pre-specified recall endpoints (top-3 +3.0 points, p = 0.0079; top-5 +3.9, p = 3.8 x 10^-5;); a factorial attributes the gain to independent generation plus moderated synthesis, not the specialist roles. On real emergency presentations the benefit reversed (top-1 40.1% versus 34.3%, p < 0.0001), carried by the specialist role lists and surviving added objective results. Deployment should key on the question and the input at hand.

Primates maintain cooperative relationships largely through grooming reciprocity, yet studies disagree on the timescales over which grooming is returned. Part of this disagreement stems from statistical issues: inconsistent definitions of a reciprocation window, combined with the exclusion of unreciprocated grooming, leave the debate unresolved. We still do not know if primates exchange grooming within the short windows predicted by biological market theory or over much longer timescales. Whilst survival analysis can identify reciprocation windows objectively by retaining unreciprocated grooming as censored data, previous studies have applied it inconsistently. This inconsistency leaves the true time frames over which primates reciprocate grooming somewhat blurred. Here, we use a statistical approach that addresses these problems to examine grooming reciprocity in crested macaques (Macaca nigra), a socially tolerant macaque species. We applied survival analysis to identify each group's short-term reciprocation window without imposing arbitrary cut offs, and Bayesian survival models to test whether social bond strength and eigenvector centrality predicted reciprocation latency. Short-term reciprocation occurred rarely (29% of events in one group and 5% in the other); most reciprocation occurred over longer timescales than previous research commonly assumes. Stronger bonds predicted faster reciprocation; this finding suggests that crested macaques express social investment in valued partners through how promptly they return grooming, meaning that the timing of exchange carries information about relationship value. Eigenvector centrality showed no credible effect, though our small sample size and dense groups prevent us from interpreting this outcome more robustly. Substantial variation between dyads remained unexplained, pointing to partnerspecific properties we have yet to identify. These findings caution against assuming that reciprocity operates over short windows. They show that social predictors, such as bond strength, remain essential to understanding when primates return grooming. This work provides a baseline for testing whether grooming is exchanged for other social commodities, and for comparing reciprocation timescales across macaque species that differ in social tolerance.

Compositional syntax - the ability to combine meaningful units into structured sequences whose overall meaning depends on both the meanings of the parts and their combination - is a hallmark of human language. Recent work suggests that chimpanzees may exhibit similar capacities, raising the possibility that compositionality predates the emergence of language in humans. However, a key challenge has been to exclude simpler explanations in which call combinations are processed as independent utterances rather than integrated structures. Here, we address this issue using a source-manipulation paradigm in playback experiments with captive chimpanzees (n = 6) at the Sigean African Reserve, France. We presented sequences combining alarm and recruitment calls either from a single source (one loudspeaker) or from two spatially distinct sources (two loudspeakers). If sequences are interpreted as independent calls, responses should not differ between conditions. Instead, chimpanzees responded significantly faster when sequences originated from a single source. Bayesian survival analyses confirmed this effect. These results support a non-trivial form of compositionality, whereby the meaning of call combinations depends on their integration into a unified sequence produced by a single individual. Our findings provide experimental evidence that key features of linguistic compositionality may have evolutionary roots in the primate lineage.

Beta diversity is a fundamental component of regional biodiversity that accumulates from compositional differences between local species assemblages. Although beta diversity is increasingly applied across spatial scales, its scale dependence remains incompletely synthesized, particularly concerning variation in spatial scale used to define alpha diversity (grain size). Using tree community data from Barro Colorado Island, we find that both additive and multiplicative beta diversity are consistently higher for unequal than equal grain divisions across different spatial extents and numbers of grains. These results can be explained by Jensen's inequality based on the concave-down relationship of alpha diversity with area that in turn increases beta diversity through the scaling relationship between alpha and gamma diversity. Combined with our additional analysis showing that this prediction is robust to more general models of species richness, including species--area and species--sampling-effort curves, these results reveal a previously unrecognized, predictable range of beta diversity variation.

The consequences of maternal effects for offspring fitness can depend on the environmental conditions offspring encounter and the fitness traits considered. We used a transgenerational experiment in Daphnia magna to test how maternal exposure to warming and elevated salinity influenced offspring survival, reproduction and body size across matching, mismatching and multiple-stressor environments. Maternal exposure to salinity enhanced offspring survival under matching salinity, and benefits extended to mismatching environments. In contrast, maternal exposure to warming provided no survival benefit under matching warming and reduced survival in mismatching environments, while accelerating reproduction across contexts. Multiple-stressor conditions revealed pronounced maternal effects, while contrasting responses across survival, reproduction and body size showed that benefits to one fitness trait did not extend to others. Our findings demonstrate that environmental matching alone is insufficient to predict maternal effects, whose consequences depend on offspring environmental complexity and the fitness trait considered.

Environmental change alters species growth rates and, through species interactions, can produce complex effects on community functioning and composition. Because functional traits mediate both environmental responses and competition, rapid trait adaptation may modify these effects, but its consequences in multispecies communities remain unclear. We used a trait-based model of competitive communities to test how adaptation affects the mean and diversity of species growth responses to environmental change, and how this influences functional and compositional resistance (how unaffected the community is by the environmental change) and resilience (how well it recovers after it has acclimated to the altered environment). Adaptation altered response variance more strongly than the mean by changing the balance between environmental optimisation and competition-driven trait divergence. As a result, adaptation strongly increased compositional stability, but had less clear effects on abundance. Adaptation also generated a trade-off between resistance and resilience: faster adaptation improved resistance but reduced resilience as communities were displaced less by the environmental change and thus recovered less. Overall, adaptation can be stabilising, but higher adaptation rates do not necessarily produce greater stability across all stability components.

Humans and other animals live in interconnected social communities that are essential for survival and well-being. In principle, social communities can persist despite changes in constituent members. However, gradually accumulating changes to membership could push systems past critical thresholds into alternate states. We investigated social network dynamics for 443 wild female Asian elephants over 12 years by tracking community membership and structure. Following accumulated demographic turnover, networks fractured into smaller and more isolated social communities. Connections were changed not only due to turnover of members but also rewired among remaining individuals. This provides the first empirical evidence of a social network state change in a long-lived mammal.

Evolutionary rescue occurs when genetic adaptation prevents extinction of a declining population. Mutation and recombination generate adaptive variation, but when their rates at adaptive loci are too low, rescue may require evolution toward higher rates of genetic change. Here, we derive and compare analytical approximations for the probability of rescue through two alternative routes: mutation-rate and recombination-rate evolution. Our model comprises two resident genotypes from which the same adaptive haplotype can arise along either route, with rescue requiring the appearance of an unlinked modifier allele that increases mutation at, or recombination between, two fitness-determining loci. We show that resident genotype composition determines the relative success of the two routes. Mutation-rate evolution yields a higher rescue probability when one resident genotype is sufficiently more common because mutation can act on either genotype whereas recombination requires both. Otherwise, the two routes yield similar rescue probabilities. Even when either route makes rescue appreciably likely, however, the modifier alleles facilitating rescue are often lost before rescue is complete. This loss is driven by multiple factors: segregation can separate the modifier from the adaptive haplotype; the fitness cost of modifier expression raises extinction risk for modifier-bearing lineages; and continued modifier-induced mutation disrupts the adaptive haplotype after it forms. The latter effect can make recombination-rate modifiers more likely to persist even when mutation-rate evolution yields a higher rescue probability. Overall, these results show that both mutation- and recombination-rate evolution can induce rescue, but successful rescue need not entail persistence of the modifier allele that facilitated it.

Extreme climatic events (ECEs) could potentially induce episodes of rapid adaptive evolution, altering the evolutionary trajectories and viability of wild populations experiencing increasingly stochastic environments. Adaptive potential stems substantially from additive genetic variance (V) in survival. However, the degree to which ECEs impact this variance, and the resulting evolutionary implications, have not been fully conceptualised or quantified in nature. These aims are highly challenging because underlying genetic and environmental variances have fundamentally non-linear effects on the dichotomous phenotypic outcome of survival versus death, while substantial data are required for estimation. We present a conceptual and analytical framework that formalises biological hypotheses for how V depends on environmental severity, how such dependences are reshaped by non-linear genotype-environment-phenotype relationships and demographic structure, and the implications for evolutionary responses. We then use 25 years of survival and pedigree data from European shags (Gulosus aristotelis) to decompose variance in adult survival across diverse environmental conditions including ECEs. Using a capture-recapture animal model, we demonstrate non-negligible V underlying adult survival across all years combined, implying notable adaptive potential. Yet, partitioning by environmental severity revealed substantial V in good years with high survival but negligible V in bad years with ECE-induced low survival, implying a genotype-by-environment interaction that constrains adaptive potential under severe conditions. However, scale transformations showed how the non-linear genotype-environment-phenotype relationship can distort or even reverse such patterns, by reducing the extent to which V is phenotypically expressed in good conditions with high mean survival and amplifying it in more severe conditions with lower mean survival. Evolutionary responses to severe conditions could consequently be non-negligible even given small underlying V. We thereby demonstrate how ECEs can reshape adaptive potential, highlighting the need to integrate impacts of environmental severity on genetic variation in fitness components into predictions of population resilience under climate change.

Environmental variability influences the evolution of phenotypic plasticity and the ecological interactions among species in communities, but it is unclear how these processes interact to affect ecological systems across scales. We investigate models describing how plasticity evolves in competitive communities exposed to seasonal variation in abiotic conditions. We conducted eco-evolutionary analyses to identify communities of coexisting species with evolutionarily stable plasticity traits. These analyses revealed that the presence of interspecific competitors constrained the evolution of plasticity in some species, which instead evolved to be specialists. Plasticity often impaired species coexistence by allowing individual species to control more niche space. Communities containing plastic species were usually less species-rich but more productive and less variable. Similar results were obtained when plasticity rate was evolutionarily labile, but plasticity rate altered the patterning of temporal niche partitioning. This work shows how plasticity and competition combine to shape ecological and trait responses to environmental variability.

Marine species with broad distributions often exhibit complex patterns of genetic connectivity, shaped by historical and contemporary processes. Understanding these patterns is critical for conserving taxa threatened by ongoing and future environmental change. Here, we use reduced-representation and whole-genome sequencing to investigate population genetic patterns in three co-occurring sea snake species (Hydrophis stokesii, Hydrophis major, and Aipysurus laevis) across northern Australia and New Caledonia. Broadscale analyses revealed major genetic breaks across all species between: (1) Australia and New Caledonia, (2) northwestern and northeastern Australia, and (3) the offshore Timor Sea reefs and adjacent northwestern continental shelf of Australia. More subtle genetic differentiation was observed between Shark Bay in Western Australia and northern localities. All species showed relatively large effective population sizes and broadscale connectivity across ~1,300 km of Australia's northwestern continental shelf. This likely reflects substantial historical range expansion over late Quaternary timescales, which may have contributed to the observed genetic connectivity across the region. However, subtle patterns of isolation by distance emphasised the contribution of species-specific traits in shaping connectivity. The isolated offshore reef populations are genetically distinct and potentially threatened by environmental change. Disjunct populations in Shark Bay and the Timor Sea maintain similar levels of genetic diversity to the extensive continental shelf populations, while New Caledonian populations exhibit reduced diversity. Our results support the delineation of spatial units for sea snake conservation based on shared phylogeographic structure, while also finding important population- and species-specific differences in connectivity at finer spatial and temporal scales.

Ecological uniqueness, commonly quantified by local contribution to beta diversity (LCBD), is important for understanding and conserving biodiversity. Its widely documented negative relationship with species richness has led to the view that species-poor communities may be disproportionately important for regional diversity. Here, we derive neutral expectations for richness-uniqueness relationships and show that negative slopes can arise from neutral assembly rather than necessarily reflecting an ecological signal of uniqueness. Neutral simulations validate the analytical expectations across abundance- and incidence-based LCBD formulations. Applying the framework to the Barro Colorado Island tropical forest and North American Breeding Bird Survey, we show that accounting for neutral sampling expectations substantially changes the ranking and spatial distribution of ecologically unique sites. By separating neutral sampling expectations from excess uniqueness, our framework provides a principled basis for interpreting ecological uniqueness and informing biodiversity conservation.

Background HPV-vaccination prevents HPV-related cancers, but uptake remains suboptimal. In the Netherlands, a catch-up campaign invited 18-27-year-olds for an additional cost-free opportunity to initiate or complete their HPV-vaccination in 2023-2024, which led to 24% of this invited population getting vaccinated. As young adults increasingly seek health information online, understanding online questions, concerns and misinformation in response to the campaign may help improve future vaccination efforts. Supplemental to overall evaluation of the vaccination campaign, we piloted online social listening processes to generate an insight report for Public Health Service (PHS) Amsterdam. Objective This study piloted online social listening processes at the PHS Amsterdam to identify actionable insights into questions, concerns and misinformation surrounding the HPV-vaccination catch-up campaign among young adults. Methods Upon inventory of potential platforms and data sources, a retrospective online social listening analysis was conducted across the platforms Instagram, Facebook, and X, collecting data from PHS, the National Public Health Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), the Dutch public broadcasting foundation (NOS), and LINDA.meiden sources from January 1, 2023, to June 1, 2024. Publicly available posts, comments, and engagement concerning HPV-vaccination were manually collected, and inductively coded. Themes were assessed for risk, based on expected potential harm and observed reach, and used to develop recommendations. Results A total of 821 posts and 5157 comments were collected and analysed. Ten recurring themes were identified across varying levels of risk. Two themes were classified as high risk: an information gap regarding the effectiveness of HPV-vaccination and concerns about the transparency on HPV-vaccine side effects. Three themes were classified as medium risk: questioning HPV-vaccine effectiveness under certain circumstances, reduced general vaccine trust following COVID-19, and accessibility issues related to vaccination locations and service times. Two themes were classified as neutral risk: questions regarding eligibility criteria for the campaign and calls for broader HIPV-prevention measures. Finally, three low risk themes concerned questions regarding HPV-vaccine brand specifics, campaign choices, and questions about scheduling or rescheduling HPV-appointments. Comments also referred to subsequent information sources, including reliable sources (public health institutes), false narratives and misinformation. Recommendations focused on addressing questions and information gaps (i.e. improving HPV risk perception and providing more detailed HPV-vaccine information), improving communication about HPV-vaccination, and reducing practical barriers to vaccination. Conclusions Manual social listening across selected online sources provided actionable insights into the public discourse during the HPV-vaccination catch-up campaign. Results mostly reflected questions, concerns and information gaps. Although some themes were critical of HPV-vaccination, false narratives and misinformation did not dominate the discourse. Recommendations aim to reduce practical barriers and address information needs. This pilot showed that online social listening can be effectively implemented even with limited resources.

Antibiotic heteroresistance, a trait in which a drug-susceptible population harbors a rare resistant subpopulation, has been presented as an unstable intermediate state on the way to classic stable antibiotic resistance. However, the timescales and pathways under which this could occur has not been examined. Extending a recombination-based model of copy- heteroresistance to include compensatory mutations, with rates and costs from experimental estimates, we simulated populations across thousands of generations of growth with {beta}-lactam exposure. In the first days a founder population survives by one of two paths, either amplifying the resistance gene to a high copy-number or gaining compensatory mutations and staying at low copy-number. However, both paths converge over weeks to months on the same low-copy compensated state, which would be indistinguishable from classical resistance. Importantly, the ending state would provide no information as to the route taken: an isolate sequenced afterward carries no sign of the intermediate amplified state. With the parameters estimated and across a wide range of parameters, we find that amplification-mediated heteroresistance can be a transient stepping stone across lethal selection that leaves no sequence trace in surviving isolates.

Several pathogenic viruses benefit plants under specific circumstances, e.g., by inducing drought resistance. It is hypothesised that RNA viruses in the Endornaviridae and Partitiviridae families, sometimes called persistent since they are exclusively seed-transmitted at ~100% efficiency, have followed evolutionary trajectories towards mutualism. However, evidence comes from crossing non-identical host backgrounds making it impossible to distinguish definitively between the effects of viral versus host genotypes. We used virus-induced gene silencing (VIGS) to cure pepper plants of bell pepper endornavirus (BPEV) and the partitiviruses pepper cryptic virus 1 (PCV1) and PCV2 and compared these with genetically identical plants retaining these viruses. We found that PCV1, PCV2 and BPEV can significantly affect aerial and root growth and fruit/seed characteristics in ways that could benefit host fitness. VIGS-mediated curing allows unambiguous hypothesis-testing of potential benefits of persistent viruses and exploration of how viral and host genotypes shape persistent virus-host relationships.

Demographic stochasticity is generally expected to contribute little to population variability when census abundance is large, because random demographic events are increasingly averaged across many individuals. This expectation, however, depends on how evenly individuals contribute to reproduction. In many natural populations, reproductive success is highly skewed, so that a large census population can coexist with a much smaller effective number of breeders (Nb). Although Nb is commonly used as a genetic measure of contemporary effective size, it also summarizes variation in reproductive contribution and may therefore contain information about demographic variability. Here, we develop a female-based age-structured theoretical framework linking Nb to temporal variability in mature population abundance, with N denoting the census number of mature females and Nb the effective number of female breeders. Recruitment variability arises from non-Poisson reproductive variation and environmental stochasticity, and its transmission to mature abundance is described by a life-history coefficient, {gamma}, determined by survival, maturation, and the contribution of overlapping cohorts. When the Poisson component of recruitment variance is negligible and Nb/N is sufficiently small, the coefficient of variation in mature abundance, CV[N], can be approximated from Nb, environmental variability, and {gamma}, with little additional information from census abundance. This approximation does not require specification of the functional form of the relationship between adult abundance and recruitment. Stochastic age-structured simulations closely reproduced the analytical prediction, even when additional demographic stochasticity in survival was included. Substantial fluctuations in mature abundance occurred at census sizes on the order of 105 when Nb was small, whereas overlapping cohorts buffered recruitment fluctuations. Because Nb can be estimated genetically from samples of a single cohort, the framework provides a direct link between genetic monitoring and population dynamics. More broadly, these results show that large census abundance alone does not guarantee weak demographic variability and highlight the potential of genetic data to inform expected population fluctuations when detailed demographic information is limited.

Recombination shapes allelic combinations across the genome and plays a central role in adaptation and speciation. While recombination rates are known to vary and evolve, how recombination landscapes diverge between populations and which processes drive this divergence remains poorly understood. Here, we use the Population Recombination Divergence Index (PRDI) to quantify divergence in effective recombination landscapes between seven pairs of populations and species from four percomorph fish lineages (cichlids, sticklebacks, killifish, and clownfish). While accounting for stochasticity and confounders of linkage disequilibrium (LD) -based recombination rate estimates, we find that recombination landscapes diverged substantially in all comparisons. This divergence generally increases with genetic differentiation and divergence time, but the amount of PRDI accumulated per unit of genetic divergence (FST), net nucleotide divergence (da), or divergence time varies markedly among population and species pairs. Comparisons across systems suggest that PRDI accumulation tends to be faster (per unit of FST, da, or divergence time) in pairs with higher inferred gene flow. We also introduce a local version of PRDI (_l) to better characterize genomic heterogeneity in effective recombination divergence. We find that higher inferred gene flow between populations tends to be associated with stronger intragenomic correlation between local FST and _l. Finally, we propose a conceptual framework for investigating how divergent selection and gene flow may interact to shape effective recombination landscape divergence. Our work highlights the heterogeneous dynamics of effective recombination landscape evolution, and motivates further theoretical and empirical efforts to integrate recombination landscape evolution into studies of adaptation and speciation.